Predictive Model

Developing a Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia

Researchers have begun testing a long-term climate prediction system – one which is suitable for Australia’s unique climate characteristics – after successfully simulating conditions in the Indian Ocean, the largest source of rainfall for Western and Southern Australia.

The POAMA project has a comprehensive website.

The Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia » (POAMA) is a state-of-the-art seasonal to inter-annual forecast system based on a coupled ocean/atmosphere model.

By using information obtained from special ocean monitors and combining it with sophisticated computer modelling of the oceans and atmosphere, researchers are working to improve both the accuracy and lead time of climate predictions – with the aim of being able to predict rainfall three to 12 months ahead for the whole of Australia.

According to project leader Dr Gary Meyers, the new research will overcome some of the weaknesses currently associated with longer term climate variability forecasting, especially limitations faced in southern and western Australia where the El Niño 'signal' is not so strong.

Dr Meyers said a coupled model of the global ocean and atmosphere which regularly receives field information from ocean and atmospheric monitors – and which also acknowledges the unique characteristics of Australian climate – offer the best opportunity to improve climate predictions.

"We’re learning that ocean currents and other ocean features play a role which implies a degree of predictability," Dr Meyers said. "This research has generated tremendous advances in the understanding of how we can harness this knowledge of ocean behaviour and its interraction with the atmosphere and then transfer that knowledge to a climate prediction system."

The project has not only broadened the understanding of how sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean influence the climate of southern and western Australia, it has enhanced the understanding of links to the El Ni¤ o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean and contributed to the identification of the so-called Indian Ocean 'cold spot' in 1994, and an even larger version of this ocean feature in 1997.

Dr Meyers said the climate prediction system was developed with special attention to the accurate simulation of the temperatures of the tropical oceans in Australia's north, as well as the eastern Indian Ocean. This region is thought to be extremely important in modulating Australia's rainfall pattern.

The model also accurately simulates the Pacific to Indian Ocean (Indonesian) throughflow, a system of currents that transports very warm water to the Indian Ocean. Importantly, it is also the first model that includes the effect of tidal mixing in seas off the northwest coast of Australia.

The project will provide Australia’s primary producers and rural industry with a more refined guide to seasonal rainfall, as well as give regional forecasters at the National Climate Centre (NCC), Melbourne a broader base of operational information.

Research products including improved understanding and preliminary results from climate prediction systems are presented at monthly general outlook meetings now. The tested climate prediction will be available to the NCC at the end of the project.

POAMA was developed in a joint project involving the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, with support provided by the Climate Variability in Agriculture Program (CVAP), a consortium of rural research and development corporations managed by Land and Water Australia. The core of the research has been carried out by scientists from the Marine and Ocean Forecasting Group at BMRC and scientist from the Oceans and Climate Group at CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research

More information

• Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) website »