This project contributes to the understanding of climate impacts and assists in the development of adaptation tools for different sectors of the environment, the economy and the community in PNG.

Extreme events (droughts and floods) have significant impacts on agricultural production and natural resource management in many parts of the world. In the Pacific rim, including Papua New Guinea (PNG) and eastern Australia, the teleconnections of climate-related anomalies with El Niño and La Niña events are very strong and are considered reliable enough for use in decision making. Individuals, communities and governments can develop appropriate seasonal response strategies to mitigate the harmful impacts or enhance potential benefits of extreme climate events. The long term goal of this project is to identify the underlying environmental, economic and social impacts of drought (and floods) and to develop mitigatation strategies with the aid of seasonal forecasting which address these causes of vulnerability under future extreme events.

The specific objectives of this project are to:

1. Develop a drought forecasting and early warning system for PNG by customising and refining the SCOPIC software.
2. Analyse historical production data for a subsistence crop (sweet-potato) and climate data to identify the impacts of past climate on production.
3. Identify strategies to minimise the adverse impacts of climate and maximise opportunities in favorable seasons through discussions with key PNG agencies.
4. Build local capacity in key government agencies (NWS and NARI) to use and apply forecasting tools and increase stakeholder awareness of climate variability and its impacts through targeted workshops and training in Australia and PNG.

Outcomes (proposed/achieved):

An assessment of skill in seasonal climate forecasting has been undertaken and a report titled 'An analysis of skill for seasonal climate outlooks in PNG' has been compiled. This analysis and historical production data (or surrogate data e.g. market prices) will be used to quantify impact of past climate on agriculture in PNG and to develop an early warning system to minimise the adverse impact of future extreme events on PNG's rural economy.