The aim of this proposal is to investigate the use of seasonal climate forecasts for improved supply and demand management of Vaturu Dam and to identify the vulnerability of supply to extended drought periods.

The approach will include an assessment of the reliability of Vaturu Dam under current and future demands scenarios and include the possible impacts of climate change on water security for the Nadi-Lautoka region.

Specific objectives include:

• develop and validate a rainfall runoff model for the Vaturu Dam catchment against acquired inflow data;
• simulate the impact of various demand management scenarios on storage volume and dam reliability; and
• build local capacity in climate risk management through improved linkages between the National Meteorological Services and the water sector

Outcomes (proposed/achieved):

This pilot project will assess water supply reliability for extended drought periods under current and future demand scenarios. The outcomes from this study will include provision of necessary decision tools and documented methodology for the Ministry of Works (and other agencies in control of water assets) to enable guidelines to be developed for dam and municipal water supply management which incorporates climate forecasts. This project will also provide an assessment of Vaturu dams' reliability under a range of future demand and climate change scenarios.

Significant effort has been invested in the development, refinement and validation of the water balance model for Vaturu Dam. Simulation of long-term storage volumes for Vaturu dam and skill testing with ENSO-based climatic variables can now be undertaken to assess the value in seasonal climate forecasting for water management (Progress August 2009).