Enhanced Application of Climate Predictions in Pacific Island Countries: An Overview Introduction In 2001 a needs analysis for strengthening meteorological services in Pacific Island Countries (PICs), funded by AusAID, found that the majority of National Meteorological Services (NMSs) in the region were encountering many difficulties in providing basic meteorological services for the citizens and industries of their countries. One of the clear priorities was the need to enhance the ability of NMSs to provide seasonal climate prediction services. The needs analysis report included a project concept that would not only enhance NMS proficiency in seasonal forecasting but would also build expertise in the prudent use of the forecasts. In response to this identified need, the Australian overseas aid and development agency, AusAID, in collaboration with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology developed a project plan for enabling participating PICs to generate and make use of seasonal predictions. The project plan emphasizes the need from the outset to develop a framework for incorporating climate prediction information into decision-making processes across a broad range of agencies and industries whose interests are affected by seasonal climate variability. To ensure a satisfactory level of confidence in the forecasts, the prediction scheme had to be based on sound science and proven techniques, and for this reason the scheme to be implemented is based on the current operational seasonal climate prediction system used by the Bureau of Meteorology for Australia. Project description The project will create greater safety, security and general well-being of the people, especially through its contribution to more sustainable development. The project has four parts:
The uptake and effective use of the seasonal climate prediction information by key climate-sensitive sectors are fundamental to the success of the project. Achieving this desired outcome requires careful and comprehensive training in order that both the benefits and limitations of the prediction information are clearly understood; tailoring of prediction services to the specific needs of user sectors in each country will also help ensure the optimum use of the predictions. The benefits of climate predictions in practical situations relevant to PICs and will be demonstrated by a small number of pilot schemes that will assist in developing industry-specific climate predictions and appropriate management responses. Virtually all training activities will be carried out in-country. Project Management and Support AusAID has engaged the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to implement and manage the project, and specialist contractors are being engaged to work on specific aspects of the project. The Project Team also has at its disposal, the considerable expertise in seasonal forecasting that resides within the Bureau's National Climate Centre. The Project Team will be guided by a Project Coordinating Committee, consisting of senior NMS delegates, the Project Director and an AusAID representative, and also, as required, by NMS technical working groups in each country. The last meeting was held in Auckland, New Zealand on 10th-11th July 2008. Duration The Phase 1 of the Project was implemented from early 2004 to the end of 2006. Phase 2 commenced in early 2007 and is scheduled to be completed by December 2009. Project Objectives At the end of the project implementation, the NMS of each participating country will have software tailored for use in its location, and a thorough understanding of how seasonal climate prediction services can be applied to support climate-sensitive decision making industry and government. Key representatives of climate-sensitive activities (e.g. agriculture, water management, disaster mitigation) will have received training in the effective use of climate predictions in a risk management context. In turn, the growth in productivity and efficiency that will follow in climate sensitive industries will naturally flow through to better food security, improved public health, better managed water resources and more robust national economies. Wider context Both AusAID and the Bureau of Meteorology are keen to coordinate project activities with those of other countries and organizations with expertise and interest in climate-related capacity-building in the South Pacific region. The project, for example, is seen to be contributing to the objectives of the World Meteorological Organization's Climate Information and Prediction Services project, to those of SPREP and SOPAC, and to the implementation of the Global Climate Observing System in the Pacific region. The project is identified as a significant activity under the Australian-US CAP (Climate Action Partnership), and the Australian and New Zealand bilateral agreement dealing with domestic matters. Sustainability Ultimately, the success of the project will be measured by how well the seasonal prediction service provided by the NMS of each participating country is sustained in the long term and continues to be used to good effect by local industries sensitive to climate fluctuations. Fortunately, the infrastructure costs for ensuring this are not high and rest mainly in building and maintaining the necessary intellectual capital within the NMS and user communities, and the dialogue between them. The expanding network of climate expertise in Pacific Island and Pacific Rim countries will also guarantee a long-term flow of supporting information throughout and into the region. Expected Outcome The building of indigenous capacity in climate science, its application to practical problems and the creation of a framework through which countries can learn from and support each other will together make an enormous contribution to sustainable development throughout the region. Inaugural Meeting of the Project At this inaugural meeting (Vava'u, Tonga, 25-26 August 2003) for the Project, Regional Directors of Pacific Island Countries and AusAID representatives both strongly suggested that the Project Team should conduct in-country discussions with high level Government officials prior to significant in-country activity taking place. The aims of such discussion would be to:
The primary purpose of this mission was to conduct such discussions with the Governments of the participating Pacific Island Countries, while a secondary aim is to visit the NMS offices to discuss the Project and demonstrate a software package integral to the prediction scheme. Dr Michael Coughlan, as the Project Coordinator, and Ms Janita Pahalad, as the Team Leader, were the delegates who conducted the in-country discussions Note: Access to the in-country visit reports is restricted. First Round of In-country Visits
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